Most analysis asks who is stronger. Warlord Intel asks who has leverage. Every question below maps to a public scenario with a full leverage board — energy, chokepoints, technology, military force and the economic ties that decide outcomes before the first shot is fired.
50 questions in the library.
This scenario represents a dangerous inflection point where Nazi Germany, unburdened by a two-front war, would present a more formidable and sustained…
A new war would likely result in a rapid Azerbaijani military victory, achieving its strategic goal of the Zangezur corridor. This would fundamentally…
A Venezuelan military incursion into Essequibo is a plausible, high-impact scenario driven by domestic incentives in Caracas. While a full-scale…
The Suwalki Gap is the one place on Earth where a small tactical mistake can pull a nuclear alliance into direct war within a week. There is no…
Persian Gulf, Levant, Red Sea and South Asia leverage flashpoints.
A new war would likely result in a rapid Azerbaijani military victory, achieving its strategic goal of the Zangezur corridor. This would fundamentally…
The Houthis cannot defeat the coalition — but they can outlast it. The shipping market reprices long before the firing stops, and Cape reroutes become…
An Egyptian strike on the GERD would be a desperate, high-risk gamble to avert a perceived water crisis. The attack would likely fail to completely…
The formation of an Egypt-GCC alliance would create a formidable new power center, fundamentally altering the Middle East's balance of power. While aimed…
An Egyptian military incursion into Libya, driven by severe economic desperation, would shatter the fragile Libyan political process and risk a wider…
Egyptian weaponization would not change battlefield math overnight — but it would dismantle the four-decade architecture that has kept the Eastern…
A full Egyptian military mobilization in Sinai would represent the most acute risk of interstate war in the Middle East in decades. This would shatter…
An Egyptian intervention in Sudan, while risky, becomes a probable outcome if the RSF threatens Egypt's core national security or water interests along…
+15 more in Middle East. See all.
NATO seams, Baltic and Balkan pressure points, EUCOM theaters.
The Suwalki Gap is the one place on Earth where a small tactical mistake can pull a nuclear alliance into direct war within a week. There is no…
A direct military conflict between Morocco and Algeria, sparked by the Western Sahara dispute, would be devastating for regional stability and create a…
The Balkans do not need a great-power war to destabilize Europe's southern flank. A weekend of barricades, one dead KFOR soldier, and a Serbian armored…
A US withdrawal from NATO would be the most significant geopolitical disruption since the Cold War's end, dismantling the core of the trans-Atlantic…
A US-Russia deal to end the war would trade a short-term cessation of hostilities for long-term strategic instability. It would fracture NATO, embolden…
This scenario fundamentally reconfigures the transatlantic security architecture, creating a more complex and potentially unstable geopolitical…
This scenario represents a dangerous inflection point where Nazi Germany, unburdened by a two-front war, would present a more formidable and sustained…
A Russian military victory in Ukraine, enabled by a US withdrawal, shatters the post-Cold War European security order. It trades a contained proxy…
+1 more in Europe. See all.
First Island Chain, Northeast Asia and INDOPACOM contingencies.
A Venezuelan military incursion into Essequibo is a plausible, high-impact scenario driven by domestic incentives in Caracas. While a full-scale…
North Korea's value is its unpredictability. Every crisis raises the price of the next one, and the regional nuclear-latency debate now runs faster than…
A blockade pressures Taipei faster than allied navies can respond. The clock — not the missile — is the weapon. Time-to-resupply defines the outcome.
An amphibious invasion of Japan represents a catastrophic geopolitical event, instantly drawing in major global powers and shattering the existing…
This incident represents the most significant test of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty in the modern era, forcing an immediate and public choice…
This scenario fundamentally challenges the Indo-Pacific security architecture. China exploits a perceived window of opportunity with the US military…
Global, cross-regional and non-theater leverage questions.
A Mexican invasion of the US is a low-probability, high-impact scenario that would result in a swift and overwhelming US military response. The primary…
This scenario represents a catastrophic blow to interconnected global systems and US strategic power projection. The synchronized nature of the attacks…
This scenario represents a tectonic shift in global geopolitics, shattering the current international order and initiating an era of systemic…
This 'gray swan' event moves beyond economic crisis into civilizational collapse. The immediate outcome is the end of the digital age and a violent…
This scenario fundamentally reshapes global power dynamics, shifting competition from traditional resources to influence over extraterrestrial contact.…
This scenario represents the most significant potential threat to the current global order in the 21st century. The bloc's success hinges entirely on its…
The widespread and rapid displacement of white-collar jobs by unstoppable AGI creates a global socio-economic shock with critical consequences.…
This scenario ignites an unprecedented struggle for global digital control, forcing a re-evaluation of state sovereignty in the digital age. The DGA's…
+4 more in Global & Other. See all.
The same questions, grouped by the kind of leverage at stake.
Who controls the oil, the straits, and the price of pressure.
The Houthis cannot defeat the coalition — but they can outlast it. The shipping market reprices long before the firing stops, and Cape reroutes become…
Iran holds the geography; the US holds the firepower. The strait can be closed for days, not months — but the market shock is measured in years of risk…
Saudi Arabia’s abandonment of the petrodollar arrangement represents a watershed moment, fundamentally reshaping global economic and geopolitical power…
Chips, models and the new leverage of the digital stack.
Nuclear, missile, blockade and direct-force escalation paths.
A new war would likely result in a rapid Azerbaijani military victory, achieving its strategic goal of the Zangezur corridor. This would fundamentally…
An Egyptian strike on the GERD would be a desperate, high-risk gamble to avert a perceived water crisis. The attack would likely fail to completely…
An Egyptian military incursion into Libya, driven by severe economic desperation, would shatter the fragile Libyan political process and risk a wider…
Egyptian weaponization would not change battlefield math overnight — but it would dismantle the four-decade architecture that has kept the Eastern…
An Egyptian intervention in Sudan, while risky, becomes a probable outcome if the RSF threatens Egypt's core national security or water interests along…
A military conflict between Germany and Turkey represents a black swan event that would shatter the post-Cold War European security order. While a…
Hezbollah cannot win, but it can make Israel pay a strategic price the country has not paid since 1973 — and force the United States to choose between…
A strike likely delays — not destroys — the Iranian program, while permanently rewriting regional deterrence. The cost is paid in oil prices and shipping…
+13 more. See all.
Sanctions, dollar dominance, insurance and supply-chain coercion.