Nuclear, missile, blockade and direct-force escalation paths.
21 questions
A new war would likely result in a rapid Azerbaijani military victory, achieving its strategic goal of the Zangezur corridor. This would fundamentally…
Middle East
An Egyptian strike on the GERD would be a desperate, high-risk gamble to avert a perceived water crisis. The attack would likely fail to completely…
Middle East
An Egyptian military incursion into Libya, driven by severe economic desperation, would shatter the fragile Libyan political process and risk a wider…
Middle East
Egyptian weaponization would not change battlefield math overnight — but it would dismantle the four-decade architecture that has kept the Eastern…
Middle East
An Egyptian intervention in Sudan, while risky, becomes a probable outcome if the RSF threatens Egypt's core national security or water interests along…
Middle East
A military conflict between Germany and Turkey represents a black swan event that would shatter the post-Cold War European security order. While a…
Middle East
Hezbollah cannot win, but it can make Israel pay a strategic price the country has not paid since 1973 — and force the United States to choose between…
Middle East
A strike likely delays — not destroys — the Iranian program, while permanently rewriting regional deterrence. The cost is paid in oil prices and shipping…
Middle East
A second October 7th-style attack, especially a multi-front assault led by Hezbollah, would trigger an immediate and devastating regional war. Israeli…
Middle East
A decisive Israeli conventional victory over Iran would shatter the existing Middle Eastern order, not create stability. The ensuing power vacuum,…
Middle East
A Mexican invasion of the US is a low-probability, high-impact scenario that would result in a swift and overwhelming US military response. The primary…
Other
North Korea's value is its unpredictability. Every crisis raises the price of the next one, and the regional nuclear-latency debate now runs faster than…
Asia-Pacific
The Balkans do not need a great-power war to destabilize Europe's southern flank. A weekend of barricades, one dead KFOR soldier, and a Serbian armored…
Europe
A blockade pressures Taipei faster than allied navies can respond. The clock — not the missile — is the weapon. Time-to-resupply defines the outcome.
Asia-Pacific
A US nuclear strike on Iran would be an act of strategic self-immolation, shattering the post-WWII international order and precipitating a global…
Middle East
A US-Russia deal to end the war would trade a short-term cessation of hostilities for long-term strategic instability. It would fracture NATO, embolden…
Europe
An amphibious invasion of Japan represents a catastrophic geopolitical event, instantly drawing in major global powers and shattering the existing…
Asia-Pacific
This scenario fundamentally challenges the Indo-Pacific security architecture. China exploits a perceived window of opportunity with the US military…
Asia-Pacific
An Iranian nuclear attack on US soil guarantees the swift and total destruction of the Iranian regime and its military-industrial base. The resulting war…
Global & Other
This scenario represents a dangerous inflection point where Nazi Germany, unburdened by a two-front war, would present a more formidable and sustained…
Europe
A unilateral US annexation of Greenland would be a self-inflicted wound of historic proportions, effectively shattering the NATO alliance and the…
Europe