Azerbaijan vs Armenia: What Decides Armenia And Azerbaijan Return to Full-scale War?
Most analysis asks who is stronger. Warlord Intel asks who has leverage.
Short answer
A new war would likely result in a rapid Azerbaijani military victory, achieving its strategic goal of the Zangezur corridor. This would fundamentally reorder the South Caucasus, cementing Turco-Azeri dominance at the expense of a marginalized Armenia and a weakened, sidelined Russia. The primary wildcard remains the extent of Iran's response to a de facto border change.