Turkey vs Germany: What Decides Political Assassination Triggers a Direct?

Short answer

A military conflict between Germany and Turkey represents a black swan event that would shatter the post-Cold War European security order. While a full-scale land war is highly improbable, limited air and naval exchanges in the Eastern Mediterranean are plausible. The resulting collapse of NATO's political unity would be the most significant consequence, creating a power vacuum that adversarial states like Russia would eagerly exploit.

Key actors